The Monday list, tested.
Every Monday, AgWaterAI ranks every block so the crew reads the right ones first. We tested that list on three seasons of a citrus estate’s records, with the test written down before the first number.
Replay on one citrus estate, our longest-running orchard: 32 blocks in California’s San Joaquin Valley, 79 Mondays across 2023 to 2025, at the same number of SWP readings each week. Caught means a stressed block week found within three days. Severe means four or more bars past the block’s stress line and missed.
Too many blocks, too few readings.
A crew can take only so many stem water potential (SWP) readings in a week. Under a SGMA allocation, every acre-foot has to go where the trees need it.
Walk the blocks in a fixed order and a block can run dry between visits. By the time the crew reaches it, the stress is already in the tree.
Read the right blocks first.
The Monday list ranks every block for the week, from the blocks closest to their stress line down. Each block carries its latest SWP readings and its stress line beside it.
The crew reads the top of the list first. The adviser decides where the crew starts and makes every irrigation call. The Thursday draft water order follows from the same week.
The week in the app, demo account.
The same question, with the frontier models added.
Field test with the frontier models, Oct 20 2026, held-out weeks, 31 blocks
In our October 2026 field test we replayed the same estate’s held-out weeks with five ways to order the week’s readings. Claude Opus 5.5 and Gemini 4 Argon ran inside our own cloud project and were handed the same probe, weather and satellite data for each week.
| Who orders the visits | Caught per 100 readings | Severe misses |
|---|---|---|
| AgWaterAI list (WATCHDOG) | 76.5 | 1 |
| AgWaterAI list (SENTRY) | 75.4 | 0 |
| Fixed rotation, every block in turn | 69.3 | 26 |
| Gemini 4 Argon list | 68.9 | 28 |
| Claude Opus 5.5 list | 68.3 | 27 |
Same readings, same held-out weeks (31 blocks, July 2023 to October 2025), 80 percent visit budget. Caught means a stressed block week found within three days, per 100 SWP readings. Severe means four or more bars past the block’s line and missed. The design was registered before the first model call.
A second run on the same estate with a different held-out set; the fixed-rotation baseline is recomputed for each run.
Written down before the first number.
The rules, the weeks and the comparison were committed before any scoring code ran.
Replayed on past weeks the list had not seen, against a fixed rotation taking the same number of SWP readings.
Scored on what matters in the field: stressed block weeks found within three days, and severe stress weeks missed.
Run in October 2026.
Your adviser makes the call.
The list puts the blocks most likely to need water in front of the adviser on Monday morning, with the readings and reasons beside each one.
The adviser chooses where the crew starts, reviews the Thursday draft water order and makes the call. Every probe reading and telemetry meter read is sealed into a signed record anyone with a record code can check.
What a grower is owed.
One estate, three seasons. A replay of past weeks, not a field trial.
The number of SWP readings stays the same. The list says where to start.
Your adviser’s reading is the measurement of record, and your GSA’s number is the official one.